Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +6.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Sourdif on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Sourdif wins 46.0% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sourdif 45.6% vs Monahan 51.2% (-6.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 85.1%
Defensive zone
Monahan 54.9%
Neutral zone
Monahan 81.4%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 64.8%
35.2%
64.8%
Sourdif
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Sourdif
Monahan
Last 8: Sourdif 5-3 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sourdif
5
0
Sourdif
Monahan
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
3
Sourdif
Monahan
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sourdif
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
44.3% (585)
51.1% (11,407)
-6.8%
Power Play
50.0% (24)
53.6% (2,582)
-3.6%
Penalty Kill
61.5% (13)
45.9% (772)
+15.6%
On penalty kill, Sourdif has a +15.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Sourdif is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (441).
Sourdif shoots right. Monahan is 50.4% vs right-shot opponents (5,426).
Home / Away
Sourdif
Monahan
Home
43.6% (321)
52.3% (7,387)
Away
46.2% (301)
50.2% (7,374)
By Period
Sourdif
Monahan
P1
41.9%
51.0%
P2
44.3%
51.7%
P3
47.9%
51.0%
OT
100.0%
53.5%
Final 5 min
42.9%
50.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sourdif
36.0%▼
41.0%
44.9%
Monahan
40.0%▼
51.0%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 17:34 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 17:20 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 11:29 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 3 | 04:05 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 2 | 16:29 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 3 | 09:50 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 1 | 19:54 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 1 | 02:42 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |