Justin Sourdif vs Sebastian Aho

2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report

Sebastian Aho holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Sourdif wins 46.0% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.

Prediction Breakdown
Model XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian) Sourdif 45.6% vs Aho 50.5% (-5.6%)
H2H factor Aho leads 10-3 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone Sourdif 81.2%
Defensive zone Sourdif 94.0%
Neutral zone Sourdif 85.1%
Result Justin Sourdif favored at 84.4%
84.4%
15.6%
Sourdif Aho
Head-to-Head Record
3 - 10 (13 meetings)
3
10
Sourdif Aho
Last 10: Sourdif 3-7 Aho

Zone Breakdown

Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
2
5
Sourdif Aho
7 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Sourdif Aho
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
0
4
Sourdif Aho
4 total

Situation Matchup

Situation
Sourdif
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
44.3% (585)
50.5% (878)
-6.2%
Power Play
50.0% (24)
53.5% (144)
-3.5%
Penalty Kill
61.5% (13)
44.3% (61)
+17.2%
On penalty kill, Sourdif has a +17.2% edge.

Handedness & Splits

Handedness
Aho shoots left. Sourdif is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (441).
Sourdif shoots right. Aho is 55.5% vs right-shot opponents (380).
Home / Away
Sourdif
Aho
Home
43.6% (321)
53.8% (571)
Away
46.2% (301)
46.9% (512)
By Period
Sourdif
Aho
P1
41.9%
49.0%
P2
44.3%
51.7%
P3
47.9%
50.3%
OT
100.0%
58.8%
Final 5 min
42.9%
49.4%

Recent Form

Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sourdif
36.0%
41.0%
44.9%
Aho
60.0%
50.5%
50.5%

Recent Faceoffs

Date Period Time Zone Winner
Jan 31, 2026 3 11:22 Offensive Justin Sourdif
Jan 31, 2026 2 05:10 Offensive Sebastian Aho
Jan 31, 2026 2 02:31 Neutral Sebastian Aho
Jan 31, 2026 1 14:16 Offensive Sebastian Aho
Jan 31, 2026 1 06:36 Neutral Sebastian Aho
Jan 31, 2026 1 03:13 Neutral Sebastian Aho
Dec 11, 2025 3 12:38 Defensive Sebastian Aho
Dec 11, 2025 3 10:01 Offensive Justin Sourdif
Dec 11, 2025 2 15:15 Offensive Sebastian Aho
Dec 11, 2025 2 15:09 Defensive Justin Sourdif
Dec 11, 2025 2 08:56 Neutral Sebastian Aho
Dec 11, 2025 2 05:33 Offensive Sebastian Aho
Dec 11, 2025 1 00:17 Offensive Sebastian Aho