Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Sourdif wins 46.8% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sourdif 47.1% vs Aho 50.4% (-4.1%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 10-3 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Sourdif 67.3%
Defensive zone
Sourdif 90.7%
Neutral zone
Sourdif 68.2%
Result
Justin Sourdif favored at 71.2%
71.2%
28.8%
Sourdif
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
10
(13 meetings)
3
10
Sourdif
Aho
Last 10: Sourdif 3-7 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
2
5
Sourdif
Aho
7 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Sourdif
Aho
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
0
4
Sourdif
Aho
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sourdif
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
45.8% (432)
50.5% (647)
-4.7%
Power Play
52.6% (19)
54.2% (131)
-1.6%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (10)
38.1% (42)
+21.9%
On penalty kill, Sourdif has a +21.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Sourdif is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (329).
Sourdif shoots right. Aho is 56.1% vs right-shot opponents (289).
Home / Away
Sourdif
Aho
Home
45.5% (235)
53.9% (445)
Away
47.3% (226)
46.4% (375)
By Period
Sourdif
Aho
P1
46.4%
48.7%
P2
41.4%
51.4%
P3
52.5%
50.8%
OT
100.0%
58.8%
Final 5 min
46.4%
49.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sourdif
44.0%▲
42.0%
46.4%
Aho
54.0%▼
56.5%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 11:22 | Offensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 05:10 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 02:31 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 14:16 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 06:36 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 03:13 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 12:38 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 10:01 | Offensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 15:15 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 15:09 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 08:56 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 05:33 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 00:17 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |