Scouting Report
Sam Steel holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Kolesar on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Kolesar wins 39.0% vs left-shot opponents — Steel shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kolesar 43.3% vs Steel 50.2% (-8.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Steel 69.2%
Defensive zone
Steel 88.8%
Neutral zone
Steel 86.9%
Result
Sam Steel favored at 81.0%
19.0%
81.0%
Kolesar
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Kolesar
Steel
Last 8: Kolesar 6-2 Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kolesar
2
1
Kolesar
Steel
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kolesar
2
1
Kolesar
Steel
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kolesar
2
0
Kolesar
Steel
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kolesar
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
41.8% (383)
50.6% (2,876)
-8.8%
Power Play
50.0% (6)
62.6% (179)
-12.6%
Penalty Kill
35.3% (17)
37.4% (254)
-2.1%
On power play, Steel has a +12.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. Kolesar is 39.0% vs left-shot opponents (300).
Kolesar shoots right. Steel is 50.5% vs right-shot opponents (1,237).
Home / Away
Kolesar
Steel
Home
38.0% (192)
50.0% (1,560)
Away
44.9% (214)
50.4% (1,749)
By Period
Kolesar
Steel
P1
42.1%
51.9%
P2
43.2%
49.5%
P3
38.9%
49.6%
Final 5 min
42.4%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kolesar
38.0%▬
38.0%
41.6%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2021 | 3 | 16:09 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Dec 31, 2021 | 2 | 04:26 | Defensive | Keegan Kolesar |
| Dec 1, 2021 | 3 | 12:10 | Offensive | Keegan Kolesar |
| Dec 1, 2021 | 2 | 12:09 | Neutral | Keegan Kolesar |
| Dec 1, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Keegan Kolesar |
| Dec 1, 2021 | 1 | 04:42 | Defensive | Keegan Kolesar |
| Feb 27, 2021 | 1 | 08:06 | Offensive | Keegan Kolesar |
| Feb 27, 2021 | 1 | 03:05 | Offensive | Sam Steel |