Scouting Report
Tomas Nosek holds a +12.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Nosek on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Kolesar wins 39.1% vs left-shot opponents — Nosek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kolesar 43.3% vs Nosek 53.9% (-12.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kolesar 85.0%
Defensive zone
Kolesar 53.3%
Neutral zone
Kolesar 77.4%
Result
Keegan Kolesar favored at 62.9%
62.9%
37.1%
Kolesar
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Kolesar
Nosek
Last 5: Kolesar 1-4 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nosek
0
3
Kolesar
Nosek
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Kolesar
Nosek
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kolesar
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
41.7% (381)
55.0% (2,608)
-13.3%
Power Play
50.0% (6)
43.5% (46)
+6.5%
Penalty Kill
35.3% (17)
48.6% (397)
-13.3%
On penalty kill, Nosek has a +13.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Kolesar is 39.1% vs left-shot opponents (299).
Kolesar shoots right. Nosek is 52.8% vs right-shot opponents (1,171).
Home / Away
Kolesar
Nosek
Home
37.9% (190)
52.9% (1,606)
Away
44.9% (214)
55.3% (1,445)
By Period
Kolesar
Nosek
P1
42.1%
52.5%
P2
43.2%
54.7%
P3
38.7%
54.6%
Final 5 min
42.4%
52.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kolesar
40.0%▲
38.0%
41.6%
Nosek
56.0%▬
55.5%
54.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2021 | 3 | 04:24 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Dec 14, 2021 | 2 | 05:06 | Neutral | Keegan Kolesar |
| Dec 14, 2021 | 1 | 15:19 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Dec 14, 2021 | 1 | 04:16 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Dec 14, 2021 | 1 | 04:12 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |