Scouting Report
Tomas Nosek holds a +12.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Nosek on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Kolesar wins 39.0% vs left-shot opponents — Nosek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kolesar 43.3% vs Nosek 53.6% (-12.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kolesar 85.0%
Defensive zone
Kolesar 55.9%
Neutral zone
Kolesar 77.4%
Result
Keegan Kolesar favored at 64.5%
64.5%
35.5%
Kolesar
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Kolesar
Nosek
Last 5: Kolesar 1-4 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nosek
0
3
Kolesar
Nosek
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Kolesar
Nosek
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kolesar
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
41.8% (383)
54.9% (2,710)
-13.1%
Power Play
50.0% (6)
45.8% (48)
+4.2%
Penalty Kill
35.3% (17)
47.2% (428)
-11.9%
On even strength, Nosek has a +13.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Kolesar is 39.0% vs left-shot opponents (300).
Kolesar shoots right. Nosek is 52.6% vs right-shot opponents (1,227).
Home / Away
Kolesar
Nosek
Home
38.0% (192)
52.8% (1,656)
Away
44.9% (214)
54.7% (1,530)
By Period
Kolesar
Nosek
P1
42.1%
52.2%
P2
43.2%
54.1%
P3
38.9%
54.7%
Final 5 min
42.4%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kolesar
38.0%▬
38.0%
41.6%
Nosek
56.0%▲
50.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2021 | 3 | 04:24 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Dec 14, 2021 | 2 | 05:06 | Neutral | Keegan Kolesar |
| Dec 14, 2021 | 1 | 15:19 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Dec 14, 2021 | 1 | 04:16 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Dec 14, 2021 | 1 | 04:12 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |