Scouting Report
Kevin Hayes holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Shaw on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Shaw wins 45.4% vs left-shot opponents — Hayes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Shaw 47.7% vs Hayes 49.3% (-2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Shaw 55.1%
Defensive zone
Hayes 62.7%
Neutral zone
Hayes 51.4%
Result
Andrew Shaw favored at 50.0%
50.0%
50.0%
Shaw
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Shaw
Hayes
Last 7: Shaw 5-2 Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Shaw
4
1
Shaw
Hayes
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Shaw
Hayes
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Shaw
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
45.8% (299)
50.5% (764)
-4.7%
Power Play
54.5% (66)
53.3% (90)
+1.2%
Penalty Kill
42.1% (19)
38.6% (127)
+3.5%
On even strength, Hayes has a +4.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Shaw is 45.4% vs left-shot opponents (293).
Shaw shoots right. Hayes is 45.0% vs right-shot opponents (333).
Home / Away
Shaw
Hayes
Home
50.0% (152)
49.0% (531)
Away
45.3% (232)
49.6% (450)
By Period
Shaw
Hayes
P1
44.8%
52.3%
P2
46.0%
45.8%
P3
50.4%
50.2%
Final 5 min
46.8%
52.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Shaw
52.0%▲
48.5%
47.1%
Hayes
32.0%▼
44.5%
49.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2018 | 3 | 19:17 | Offensive | Andrew Shaw |
| Nov 6, 2018 | 3 | 18:58 | Offensive | Andrew Shaw |
| Nov 6, 2018 | 3 | 14:42 | Defensive | Andrew Shaw |
| Nov 6, 2018 | 2 | 14:20 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 6, 2018 | 1 | 17:18 | Offensive | Andrew Shaw |
| Nov 6, 2018 | 1 | 13:43 | Offensive | Andrew Shaw |
| Nov 6, 2018 | 1 | 13:37 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |