Scouting Report
Mika Zibanejad holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Zibanejad on neutral-zone draws (58% H2H, 26 meetings). Hayes wins 46.3% vs right-shot opponents — Zibanejad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 47.8% vs Zibanejad 49.9% (-2.2%)
H2H factor
Zibanejad leads 37-35 in 72 meetings
Offensive zone
Hayes 50.4%
Defensive zone
Hayes 52.4%
Neutral zone
Zibanejad 50.8%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 50.4%
50.4%
49.6%
Hayes
Zibanejad
Head-to-Head Record
35
-
37
(72 meetings)
35
37
Hayes
Zibanejad
Last 10: Hayes 5-5 Zibanejad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
15
15
Hayes
Zibanejad
30 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
9
7
Hayes
Zibanejad
16 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
11
15
Hayes
Zibanejad
26 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Zibanejad
Edge
Even Strength
47.6% (6,698)
50.8% (11,540)
-3.2%
Power Play
51.7% (702)
52.2% (1,848)
-0.5%
Penalty Kill
45.4% (696)
41.3% (1,766)
+4.1%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +4.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zibanejad shoots right. Hayes is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (2,970).
Hayes shoots left. Zibanejad is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (10,527).
Home / Away
Hayes
Zibanejad
Home
48.1% (3,982)
51.6% (7,444)
Away
47.4% (4,114)
48.3% (7,711)
By Period
Hayes
Zibanejad
P1
47.5%
50.4%
P2
47.7%
49.7%
P3
47.9%
49.8%
OT
54.1%
48.5%
Final 5 min
49.3%
48.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
32.0%▼
44.5%
47.7%
Zibanejad
46.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2025 | 3 | 13:45 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 3 | 01:43 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 2 | 07:03 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 1 | 13:28 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 1 | 00:13 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 2 | 09:13 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 2 | 09:10 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 1, 2023 | 3 | 16:37 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 1, 2023 | 2 | 09:47 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 1, 2023 | 2 | 08:16 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 1, 2023 | 2 | 08:05 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 1, 2023 | 1 | 14:40 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 1, 2022 | OT | 00:09 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 1, 2022 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 3 | 14:19 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 1 | 13:17 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 1 | 01:00 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Apr 13, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Apr 13, 2022 | 2 | 17:40 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |