Scouting Report
Nick Bjugstad holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayes on offensive-zone draws (64% H2H, 14 meetings). Hayes wins 46.3% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 47.7% vs Bjugstad 49.0% (-1.3%)
H2H factor
Hayes leads 24-19 in 43 meetings
Offensive zone
Bjugstad 52.9%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 57.7%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 55.8%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 55.6%
44.4%
55.6%
Hayes
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
24
-
19
(43 meetings)
24
19
Hayes
Bjugstad
Last 10: Hayes 6-4 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
9
5
Hayes
Bjugstad
14 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
10
6
Hayes
Bjugstad
16 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
5
8
Hayes
Bjugstad
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (6,708)
48.6% (6,646)
-1.1%
Power Play
51.7% (702)
55.2% (829)
-3.5%
Penalty Kill
45.3% (697)
44.3% (614)
+1.0%
On power play, Bjugstad has a +3.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Hayes is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (2,975).
Hayes shoots left. Bjugstad is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (5,753).
Home / Away
Hayes
Bjugstad
Home
48.1% (3,982)
49.8% (4,023)
Away
47.3% (4,125)
48.1% (4,066)
By Period
Hayes
Bjugstad
P1
47.5%
48.9%
P2
47.6%
49.1%
P3
47.9%
48.5%
OT
54.1%
61.3%
Final 5 min
49.3%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
47.7%
Bjugstad
42.0%▼
48.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2025 | 1 | 15:23 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 19:31 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 06:38 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 2 | 12:15 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 1 | 14:30 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 3 | 05:25 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 2 | 05:37 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 1 | 08:11 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 3 | 18:59 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 3 | 18:48 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 3 | 18:22 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 3 | 18:12 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 3 | 16:25 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 3 | 10:36 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 3 | 08:13 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 3 | 17:12 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 2 | 10:39 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 2 | 03:03 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 3 | 19:31 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |