Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Stenlund on defensive-zone draws (94% H2H, 33 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Stenlund 53.9% (-1.3%)
H2H factor
Stenlund leads 37-13 in 50 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 83.4%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 54.5%
Neutral zone
Larkin 63.0%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 55.5%
55.5%
44.5%
Larkin
Stenlund
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
37
(50 meetings)
13
37
Larkin
Stenlund
Last 10: Larkin 4-6 Stenlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
7
3
Larkin
Stenlund
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
2
31
Larkin
Stenlund
33 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
4
3
Larkin
Stenlund
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Stenlund
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (9,056)
55.3% (2,738)
-3.7%
Power Play
58.6% (2,140)
52.6% (116)
+6.0%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,124)
50.4% (924)
-0.2%
On power play, Larkin has a +6.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stenlund shoots right. Larkin is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,444).
Larkin shoots left. Stenlund is 56.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,846).
Home / Away
Larkin
Stenlund
Home
53.9% (6,277)
54.3% (1,873)
Away
51.4% (6,043)
53.8% (1,905)
By Period
Larkin
Stenlund
P1
52.7%
56.2%
P2
53.1%
53.3%
P3
52.0%
53.0%
OT
58.4%
52.9%
Final 5 min
53.2%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.7%
Stenlund
56.0%▼
59.0%
54.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2026 | 3 | 14:30 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 3 | 14:21 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 3 | 08:43 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 19:02 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 15:00 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 14:51 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 18:14 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 18:09 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 10:04 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 3 | 08:12 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 2 | 11:55 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 2 | 09:19 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 2 | 04:17 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 2 | 01:00 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 1 | 11:06 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 24, 2025 | 3 | 12:39 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 24, 2025 | 3 | 06:32 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 24, 2025 | 2 | 19:22 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 24, 2025 | 2 | 16:23 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |