Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for McTavish on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Stenlund wins 57.6% vs left-shot opponents — McTavish shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 54.2% vs McTavish 49.1% (+5.6%)
H2H factor
McTavish leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
McTavish 90.8%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 65.8%
Neutral zone
McTavish 75.6%
Result
Mason McTavish favored at 74.9%
25.1%
74.9%
Stenlund
McTavish
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
Stenlund
McTavish
Last 10: Stenlund 3-7 McTavish
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McTavish
1
4
Stenlund
McTavish
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
2
0
Stenlund
McTavish
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McTavish
0
3
Stenlund
McTavish
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
McTavish
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (650)
47.6% (617)
+8.6%
Power Play
53.2% (47)
57.8% (102)
-4.6%
Penalty Kill
51.6% (312)
33.3% (6)
+18.3%
On penalty kill, Stenlund has a +18.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McTavish shoots left. Stenlund is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (688).
Stenlund shoots right. McTavish is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (256).
Home / Away
Stenlund
McTavish
Home
56.9% (483)
52.2% (389)
Away
52.5% (526)
45.2% (336)
By Period
Stenlund
McTavish
P1
54.2%
50.2%
P2
53.2%
47.9%
P3
56.9%
49.0%
OT
42.1%
40.0%
Final 5 min
57.5%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
56.0%▼
59.0%
54.6%
McTavish
48.0%▲
45.5%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 3, 2025 | 3 | 04:35 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 3 | 04:15 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 3 | 01:41 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 2 | 09:51 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 1 | 07:30 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 3 | 18:55 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 3 | 09:19 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2 | 19:45 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2 | 12:23 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2 | 04:29 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |