Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +11.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Stenlund on defensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 8 meetings). Stenlund wins 56.0% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 53.9% vs Cates 43.2% (+11.0%)
H2H factor
Stenlund leads 14-3 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Stenlund 75.6%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 97.2%
Neutral zone
Stenlund 90.7%
Result
Kevin Stenlund favored at 88.4%
88.4%
11.6%
Stenlund
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
3
(17 meetings)
14
3
Stenlund
Cates
Last 10: Stenlund 10-0 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
4
2
Stenlund
Cates
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
7
1
Stenlund
Cates
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stenlund
3
0
Stenlund
Cates
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (2,738)
44.1% (2,786)
+11.2%
Power Play
52.6% (116)
42.9% (254)
+9.7%
Penalty Kill
50.4% (924)
34.9% (373)
+15.5%
On penalty kill, Stenlund has a +15.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Stenlund is 56.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,846).
Stenlund shoots right. Cates is 45.4% vs right-shot opponents (1,103).
Home / Away
Stenlund
Cates
Home
54.3% (1,873)
43.9% (1,708)
Away
53.8% (1,905)
42.2% (1,705)
By Period
Stenlund
Cates
P1
56.2%
44.5%
P2
53.3%
43.7%
P3
53.0%
41.2%
OT
52.9%
29.4%
Final 5 min
53.4%
41.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
56.0%▼
59.0%
54.0%
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2026 | 2 | 14:21 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 1 | 02:58 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 19:25 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 12:52 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 12:47 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 01:39 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 10:29 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 4, 2025 | OT | 02:40 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 4, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 3 | 07:36 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 3 | 07:26 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 2 | 00:11 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 1 | 10:34 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 1 | 06:16 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 3 | 16:54 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 2 | 12:54 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 1 | 02:26 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |