Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +18.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Kelly on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Stenlund wins 57.6% vs left-shot opponents — Kelly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 54.2% vs Kelly 41.4% (+18.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stenlund 56.0%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 89.6%
Neutral zone
Stenlund 64.6%
Result
Kevin Stenlund favored at 74.6%
74.6%
25.4%
Stenlund
Kelly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Stenlund
Kelly
Last 5: Stenlund 3-2 Kelly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
2
0
Stenlund
Kelly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
1
2
Stenlund
Kelly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
Kelly
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (650)
36.5% (159)
+19.7%
Power Play
53.2% (47)
0.0% (1)
+53.2%
Penalty Kill
51.6% (312)
38.5% (13)
+13.1%
On power play, Stenlund has a +53.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kelly shoots left. Stenlund is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (688).
Stenlund shoots right. Kelly is 34.9% vs right-shot opponents (63).
Home / Away
Stenlund
Kelly
Home
56.9% (483)
35.4% (79)
Away
52.5% (526)
37.2% (94)
By Period
Stenlund
Kelly
P1
54.2%
33.8%
P2
53.2%
36.5%
P3
56.9%
39.6%
Final 5 min
57.5%
37.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
56.0%▼
59.0%
54.6%
Kelly
46.0%▲
38.0%
36.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 03:40 | Neutral | Parker Kelly |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 14:44 | Neutral | Parker Kelly |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 08:42 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 1 | 02:43 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 06:41 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |