Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +13.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Stenlund on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Stenlund wins 56.0% vs left-shot opponents — Kelly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 53.9% vs Kelly 41.7% (+13.1%)
H2H factor
Stenlund leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Stenlund 83.3%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 91.4%
Neutral zone
Stenlund 88.3%
Result
Kevin Stenlund favored at 89.0%
89.0%
11.0%
Stenlund
Kelly
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
3
(11 meetings)
8
3
Stenlund
Kelly
Last 10: Stenlund 7-3 Kelly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
1
0
Stenlund
Kelly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
4
0
Stenlund
Kelly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Stenlund
Kelly
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
Kelly
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (2,738)
42.0% (758)
+13.3%
Power Play
52.6% (116)
0.0% (3)
+52.6%
Penalty Kill
50.4% (924)
36.8% (174)
+13.6%
On power play, Stenlund has a +52.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kelly shoots left. Stenlund is 56.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,846).
Stenlund shoots right. Kelly is 39.7% vs right-shot opponents (305).
Home / Away
Stenlund
Kelly
Home
54.3% (1,873)
42.4% (476)
Away
53.8% (1,905)
39.2% (459)
By Period
Stenlund
Kelly
P1
56.2%
42.3%
P2
53.3%
44.7%
P3
53.0%
35.6%
OT
52.9%
50.0%
Final 5 min
53.4%
35.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
56.0%▼
59.0%
54.0%
Kelly
46.0%▲
38.0%
40.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 03:40 | Neutral | Parker Kelly |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 14:44 | Neutral | Parker Kelly |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 08:42 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 1 | 02:43 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 06:41 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 1 | 06:34 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 1 | 03:43 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 2 | 17:50 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 2 | 17:33 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 1 | 19:19 | Neutral | Parker Kelly |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 1 | 09:18 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |