Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.6% vs 53.9%). Stenlund wins 57.6% vs left-shot opponents — Couturier shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 54.2% vs Couturier 53.6% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Couturier 58.5%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 60.7%
Neutral zone
Stenlund 50.3%
Result
Kevin Stenlund favored at 53.3%
53.3%
46.7%
Stenlund
Couturier
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Stenlund
Couturier
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
1
0
Stenlund
Couturier
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Stenlund
Couturier
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Couturier
0
1
Stenlund
Couturier
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
Couturier
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (650)
53.9% (792)
+2.3%
Power Play
53.2% (47)
62.9% (70)
-9.7%
Penalty Kill
51.6% (312)
51.3% (234)
+0.3%
On power play, Couturier has a +9.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Couturier shoots left. Stenlund is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (688).
Stenlund shoots right. Couturier is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (395).
Home / Away
Stenlund
Couturier
Home
56.9% (483)
51.4% (541)
Away
52.5% (526)
56.4% (555)
By Period
Stenlund
Couturier
P1
54.2%
56.0%
P2
53.2%
52.6%
P3
56.9%
54.3%
OT
42.1%
44.1%
Final 5 min
57.5%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
56.0%▼
59.0%
54.6%
Couturier
64.0%▲
56.0%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2026 | 3 | 17:35 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 2 | 19:33 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 16:37 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 00:58 | Neutral | Sean Couturier |