Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.6% vs 55.5%). Look for Stenlund on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Stenlund wins 57.6% vs left-shot opponents — Crosby shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 54.2% vs Crosby 55.1% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Crosby 86.9%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 85.2%
Neutral zone
Crosby 54.5%
Result
Sidney Crosby favored at 51.4%
48.6%
51.4%
Stenlund
Crosby
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Stenlund
Crosby
Last 7: Stenlund 4-3 Crosby
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Crosby
1
2
Stenlund
Crosby
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
3
0
Stenlund
Crosby
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Crosby
0
1
Stenlund
Crosby
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
Crosby
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (650)
53.3% (1,025)
+2.9%
Power Play
53.2% (47)
64.7% (249)
-11.5%
Penalty Kill
51.6% (312)
60.0% (15)
-8.4%
On power play, Crosby has a +11.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Crosby shoots left. Stenlund is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (688).
Stenlund shoots right. Crosby is 57.3% vs right-shot opponents (375).
Home / Away
Stenlund
Crosby
Home
56.9% (483)
56.9% (675)
Away
52.5% (526)
54.1% (614)
By Period
Stenlund
Crosby
P1
54.2%
55.1%
P2
53.2%
53.1%
P3
56.9%
58.5%
OT
42.1%
54.2%
Final 5 min
57.5%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
56.0%▼
59.0%
54.6%
Crosby
46.0%▼
54.0%
55.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2025 | 3 | 13:02 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 3 | 08:38 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 2 | 19:24 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 2 | 11:57 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 1 | 16:49 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 1 | 16:33 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 1 | 09:18 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |