Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.0% vs 54.3%). Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (96% H2H, 27 meetings). Stenlund wins 56.0% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 53.9% vs Hertl 54.3% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 38-19 in 57 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 69.6%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 79.3%
Neutral zone
Stenlund 55.1%
Result
Kevin Stenlund favored at 53.2%
53.2%
46.8%
Stenlund
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
19
-
38
(57 meetings)
19
38
Stenlund
Hertl
Last 10: Stenlund 6-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
26
Stenlund
Hertl
27 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
15
8
Stenlund
Hertl
23 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
3
4
Stenlund
Hertl
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (2,738)
53.9% (8,303)
+1.4%
Power Play
52.6% (116)
59.2% (1,995)
-6.6%
Penalty Kill
50.4% (924)
46.3% (806)
+4.1%
On power play, Hertl has a +6.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Stenlund is 56.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,846).
Stenlund shoots right. Hertl is 56.9% vs right-shot opponents (4,142).
Home / Away
Stenlund
Hertl
Home
54.3% (1,873)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
53.8% (1,905)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Stenlund
Hertl
P1
56.2%
53.6%
P2
53.3%
54.2%
P3
53.0%
55.3%
OT
52.9%
46.9%
Final 5 min
53.4%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
56.0%▼
59.0%
54.0%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | 3 | 19:02 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 3 | 18:32 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 3 | 18:17 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 3 | 16:01 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 3 | 15:54 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 3 | 02:13 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 16:48 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 14:31 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 05:34 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 15:37 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 3 | 09:45 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 3 | 08:40 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 2 | 14:51 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 2 | 04:14 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 1 | 13:44 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 17:56 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 17:44 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 02:23 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 06:16 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 30, 2024 | 3 | 14:53 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |