Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +9.1% FO% edge overall. Stenlund wins 57.6% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 54.2% vs Gourde 46.0% (+9.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gourde 55.1%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 68.4%
Neutral zone
Gourde 54.5%
Result
Kevin Stenlund favored at 56.6%
56.6%
43.4%
Stenlund
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Stenlund
Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
1
0
Stenlund
Gourde
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
1
Stenlund
Gourde
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (650)
47.2% (687)
+9.0%
Power Play
53.2% (47)
45.0% (20)
+8.2%
Penalty Kill
51.6% (312)
33.0% (88)
+18.6%
On penalty kill, Stenlund has a +18.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Stenlund is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (688).
Stenlund shoots right. Gourde is 43.8% vs right-shot opponents (272).
Home / Away
Stenlund
Gourde
Home
56.9% (483)
44.4% (356)
Away
52.5% (526)
46.5% (439)
By Period
Stenlund
Gourde
P1
54.2%
42.2%
P2
53.2%
50.0%
P3
56.9%
44.5%
OT
42.1%
50.0%
Final 5 min
57.5%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
56.0%▼
59.0%
54.6%
Gourde
48.0%▲
46.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2025 | 2 | 19:58 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 2 | 06:58 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |