Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). MacLean wins 46.3% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacLean 47.9% vs Aho 51.3% (-3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacLean 53.7%
Defensive zone
MacLean 82.4%
Neutral zone
MacLean 74.6%
Result
Kyle MacLean favored at 63.6%
63.6%
36.4%
MacLean
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
MacLean
Aho
Last 5: MacLean 1-4 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
3
MacLean
Aho
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
MacLean
Aho
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacLean
1
0
MacLean
Aho
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacLean
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
47.2% (852)
50.2% (6,646)
-3.0%
Power Play
62.5% (8)
58.9% (1,310)
+3.6%
Penalty Kill
56.7% (30)
46.5% (465)
+10.2%
On penalty kill, MacLean has a +10.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. MacLean is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (572).
MacLean shoots left. Aho is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (5,317).
Home / Away
MacLean
Aho
Home
46.9% (429)
52.4% (4,325)
Away
48.4% (461)
50.1% (4,096)
By Period
MacLean
Aho
P1
46.4%
51.1%
P2
49.7%
52.1%
P3
46.5%
50.8%
Final 5 min
54.9%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacLean
54.0%▼
56.5%
47.6%
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2025 | 3 | 19:45 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 2 | 11:28 | Neutral | Kyle MacLean |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 3 | 02:57 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 2 | 06:32 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 1 | 13:45 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |