Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pederson 49.0% vs Hertl 54.3% (-5.6%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Pederson 75.3%
Defensive zone
Pederson 71.8%
Neutral zone
Pederson 74.7%
Result
Lane Pederson favored at 74.2%
74.2%
25.8%
Pederson
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
Pederson
Hertl
Last 10: Pederson 3-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
4
Pederson
Hertl
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
3
Pederson
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pederson
1
0
Pederson
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pederson
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (323)
53.9% (8,303)
-5.0%
Power Play
47.4% (19)
59.2% (1,995)
-11.8%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (9)
46.3% (806)
-1.9%
On power play, Hertl has a +11.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Pederson is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (263).
Pederson shoots right. Hertl is 56.9% vs right-shot opponents (4,142).
Home / Away
Pederson
Hertl
Home
53.1% (145)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
45.6% (206)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Pederson
Hertl
P1
49.6%
53.6%
P2
45.8%
54.2%
P3
50.9%
55.3%
Final 5 min
45.9%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pederson
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.7%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2023 | 3 | 07:53 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| May 8, 2021 | 1 | 08:57 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| May 8, 2021 | 1 | 00:37 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| May 7, 2021 | 3 | 18:57 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| May 7, 2021 | 3 | 18:09 | Neutral | Lane Pederson |
| May 7, 2021 | 3 | 13:14 | Offensive | Lane Pederson |
| May 7, 2021 | 3 | 09:46 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 28, 2021 | 1 | 18:36 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 28, 2021 | 1 | 06:49 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 26, 2021 | 1 | 17:13 | Offensive | Lane Pederson |