Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +11.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Eller on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Sourdif wins 46.0% vs left-shot opponents — Eller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sourdif 45.6% vs Eller 55.0% (-11.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sourdif 68.1%
Defensive zone
Sourdif 68.0%
Neutral zone
Sourdif 75.3%
Result
Justin Sourdif favored at 69.5%
69.5%
30.5%
Sourdif
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Sourdif
Eller
Last 5: Sourdif 1-4 Eller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Eller
1
2
Sourdif
Eller
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
0
1
Sourdif
Eller
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Eller
0
1
Sourdif
Eller
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sourdif
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
44.3% (585)
56.0% (459)
-11.7%
Power Play
50.0% (24)
77.8% (9)
-27.8%
Penalty Kill
61.5% (13)
51.9% (54)
+9.6%
On power play, Eller has a +27.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. Sourdif is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (441).
Sourdif shoots right. Eller is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (201).
Home / Away
Sourdif
Eller
Home
43.6% (321)
52.6% (215)
Away
46.2% (301)
58.3% (307)
By Period
Sourdif
Eller
P1
41.9%
54.1%
P2
44.3%
57.6%
P3
47.9%
56.2%
Final 5 min
42.9%
60.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sourdif
36.0%▼
41.0%
44.9%
Eller
44.0%▼
51.5%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2026 | 1 | 08:49 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 18:34 | Offensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 14:22 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 12:22 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 02:31 | Defensive | Lars Eller |