Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Eller wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — McCarron shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 55.0% vs McCarron 52.1% (+3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Eller 69.6%
Defensive zone
McCarron 68.4%
Neutral zone
McCarron 54.2%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 50.6%
50.6%
49.4%
Eller
McCarron
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Eller
McCarron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Eller
1
0
Eller
McCarron
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McCarron
0
1
Eller
McCarron
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
McCarron
Edge
Even Strength
56.0% (459)
52.8% (697)
+3.2%
Power Play
77.8% (9)
18.2% (11)
+59.6%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (54)
52.6% (211)
-0.7%
On power play, Eller has a +59.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McCarron shoots right. Eller is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (201).
Eller shoots left. McCarron is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (645).
Home / Away
Eller
McCarron
Home
52.6% (215)
52.8% (477)
Away
58.3% (307)
51.8% (442)
By Period
Eller
McCarron
P1
54.1%
56.2%
P2
57.6%
52.4%
P3
56.2%
48.7%
Final 5 min
60.0%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
44.0%▼
51.5%
55.9%
McCarron
38.0%▼
49.0%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 12:56 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 2 | 10:53 | Offensive | Lars Eller |