Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Eller wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 55.0% vs MacKinnon 51.0% (+4.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 87.4%
Defensive zone
Eller 54.7%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 64.1%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 87.4%
12.6%
87.4%
Eller
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Eller
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
2
Eller
MacKinnon
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
56.0% (459)
49.7% (1,038)
+6.3%
Power Play
77.8% (9)
63.7% (157)
+14.1%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (54)
34.4% (32)
+17.5%
On penalty kill, Eller has a +17.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Eller is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (201).
Eller shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (886).
Home / Away
Eller
MacKinnon
Home
52.6% (215)
53.1% (618)
Away
58.3% (307)
49.1% (609)
By Period
Eller
MacKinnon
P1
54.1%
49.3%
P2
57.6%
53.0%
P3
56.2%
50.7%
Final 5 min
60.0%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
44.0%▼
51.5%
55.9%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 05:37 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 05:11 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |