Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Eller wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Thomas shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 55.0% vs Thomas 51.9% (+3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thomas 58.3%
Defensive zone
Eller 65.1%
Neutral zone
Thomas 54.0%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 57.3%
57.3%
42.7%
Eller
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Eller
Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
0
1
Eller
Thomas
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
2
0
Eller
Thomas
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
56.0% (459)
50.3% (652)
+5.7%
Power Play
77.8% (9)
61.5% (104)
+16.3%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (54)
54.2% (120)
-2.3%
On power play, Eller has a +16.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Eller is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (201).
Eller shoots left. Thomas is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (621).
Home / Away
Eller
Thomas
Home
52.6% (215)
52.0% (400)
Away
58.3% (307)
52.3% (476)
By Period
Eller
Thomas
P1
54.1%
49.6%
P2
57.6%
55.4%
P3
56.2%
51.0%
Final 5 min
60.0%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
44.0%▼
51.5%
55.9%
Thomas
56.0%▲
47.5%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 03:52 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 03:41 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 10:30 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |