Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.9% vs 55.4%). Eller wins 56.4% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 55.0% vs O'Reilly 55.0% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 67.6%
Defensive zone
Eller 65.3%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 51.9%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 65.3%
65.3%
34.7%
Eller
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Eller
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Eller
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
56.0% (459)
55.7% (856)
+0.3%
Power Play
77.8% (9)
57.5% (233)
+20.3%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (54)
50.0% (144)
+1.9%
On power play, Eller has a +20.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Eller is 56.4% vs left-shot opponents (321).
Eller shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Eller
O'Reilly
Home
52.6% (215)
55.5% (616)
Away
58.3% (307)
55.3% (617)
By Period
Eller
O'Reilly
P1
54.1%
58.1%
P2
57.6%
54.9%
P3
56.2%
53.9%
Final 5 min
60.0%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
44.0%▼
51.5%
55.9%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 19:50 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 17:37 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |