Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Eller on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Eller wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Seguin shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 55.0% vs Seguin 52.5% (+2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Seguin 52.5%
Defensive zone
Eller 69.4%
Neutral zone
Eller 63.7%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 68.0%
68.0%
32.0%
Eller
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Eller
Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
3
0
Eller
Seguin
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Seguin
0
1
Eller
Seguin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
56.0% (459)
53.2% (201)
+2.8%
Power Play
77.8% (9)
60.0% (25)
+17.8%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (54)
44.4% (9)
+7.5%
On power play, Eller has a +17.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. Eller is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (201).
Eller shoots left. Seguin is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (187).
Home / Away
Eller
Seguin
Home
52.6% (215)
56.3% (126)
Away
58.3% (307)
50.5% (109)
By Period
Eller
Seguin
P1
54.1%
44.3%
P2
57.6%
52.1%
P3
56.2%
62.5%
Final 5 min
60.0%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
44.0%▼
51.5%
55.9%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
53.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2025 | 3 | 10:52 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 3 | 09:42 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 2 | 00:45 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 04:58 | Defensive | Lars Eller |