Scouting Report
Leo Carlsson holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for McMichael on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). McMichael wins 44.7% vs left-shot opponents — Carlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McMichael 43.9% vs Carlsson 44.6% (-1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 71.8%
Defensive zone
McMichael 53.9%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 60.9%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 51.2%
48.8%
51.2%
McMichael
Carlsson
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
0
(5 meetings)
5
0
McMichael
Carlsson
Last 5: McMichael 5-0 Carlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McMichael
1
0
McMichael
Carlsson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McMichael
4
0
McMichael
Carlsson
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McMichael
Carlsson
Edge
Even Strength
42.9% (408)
45.0% (695)
-2.1%
Power Play
49.1% (55)
46.4% (84)
+2.7%
Penalty Kill
39.0% (105)
32.9% (85)
+6.1%
On penalty kill, McMichael has a +6.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carlsson shoots left. McMichael is 44.7% vs left-shot opponents (376).
McMichael shoots left. Carlsson is 42.8% vs left-shot opponents (573).
Home / Away
McMichael
Carlsson
Home
43.0% (298)
42.5% (435)
Away
42.6% (270)
45.5% (429)
By Period
McMichael
Carlsson
P1
46.6%
45.3%
P2
40.8%
38.7%
P3
41.8%
48.5%
Final 5 min
43.3%
38.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McMichael
38.0%▼
45.0%
42.8%
Carlsson
32.0%▼
39.0%
44.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 5, 2026 | 3 | 10:13 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 3 | 07:38 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 2 | 13:57 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 1 | 18:41 | Offensive | Connor McMichael |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 3 | 19:09 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |