Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Carlsson wins 42.8% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 44.6% vs Duchene 51.8% (-8.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 70.7%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 69.9%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 72.1%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 71.0%
71.0%
29.0%
Carlsson
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Carlsson
Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
Carlsson
Duchene
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
Carlsson
Duchene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
45.0% (695)
51.1% (366)
-6.1%
Power Play
46.4% (84)
61.5% (65)
-15.1%
Penalty Kill
32.9% (85)
16.7% (6)
+16.2%
On penalty kill, Carlsson has a +16.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Carlsson is 42.8% vs left-shot opponents (573).
Carlsson shoots left. Duchene is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (272).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Duchene
Home
42.5% (435)
51.7% (201)
Away
45.5% (429)
52.5% (236)
By Period
Carlsson
Duchene
P1
45.3%
49.0%
P2
38.7%
57.1%
P3
48.5%
49.2%
OT
41.7%
60.0%
Final 5 min
38.4%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
32.0%▼
39.0%
44.0%
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 19, 2025 | 2 | 15:10 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 2 | 08:05 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |