Scouting Report
Matty Beniers holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Carlsson wins 44.0% vs left-shot opponents — Beniers shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 46.0% vs Beniers 49.2% (-3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Beniers 53.7%
Defensive zone
Beniers 52.4%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 52.3%
Result
Matty Beniers favored at 53.1%
46.9%
53.1%
Carlsson
Beniers
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Carlsson
Beniers
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Beniers
0
1
Carlsson
Beniers
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
1
0
Carlsson
Beniers
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Beniers
Edge
Even Strength
47.1% (533)
48.8% (647)
-1.7%
Power Play
46.3% (80)
53.8% (26)
-7.5%
Penalty Kill
33.8% (80)
50.0% (32)
-16.2%
On penalty kill, Beniers has a +16.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Beniers shoots left. Carlsson is 44.0% vs left-shot opponents (452).
Carlsson shoots left. Beniers is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (472).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Beniers
Home
44.4% (340)
52.7% (357)
Away
46.5% (353)
45.4% (348)
By Period
Carlsson
Beniers
P1
48.2%
47.9%
P2
38.4%
51.9%
P3
50.5%
46.8%
OT
44.4%
66.7%
Final 5 min
38.1%
42.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
40.0%▼
43.5%
45.5%
Beniers
64.0%▲
51.0%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 14:14 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 05:41 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |