Scouting Report
Matty Beniers holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Carlsson wins 42.8% vs left-shot opponents — Beniers shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 44.6% vs Beniers 48.8% (-4.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Beniers 53.7%
Defensive zone
Beniers 53.6%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 53.5%
Result
Matty Beniers favored at 53.6%
46.4%
53.6%
Carlsson
Beniers
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Carlsson
Beniers
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Beniers
0
1
Carlsson
Beniers
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
1
0
Carlsson
Beniers
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Beniers
Edge
Even Strength
45.0% (695)
48.3% (862)
-3.3%
Power Play
46.4% (84)
58.3% (36)
-11.9%
Penalty Kill
32.9% (85)
50.0% (32)
-17.1%
On penalty kill, Beniers has a +17.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Beniers shoots left. Carlsson is 42.8% vs left-shot opponents (573).
Carlsson shoots left. Beniers is 50.9% vs left-shot opponents (634).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Beniers
Home
42.5% (435)
52.4% (460)
Away
45.5% (429)
45.1% (470)
By Period
Carlsson
Beniers
P1
45.3%
47.5%
P2
38.7%
50.6%
P3
48.5%
47.6%
OT
41.7%
62.5%
Final 5 min
38.4%
45.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
32.0%▼
39.0%
44.0%
Beniers
32.0%▼
47.0%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 14:14 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 05:41 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |