Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +7.1% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Carlsson wins 46.4% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 44.6% vs MacKinnon 51.0% (-7.1%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 8-5 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Carlsson 53.5%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 66.5%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 62.3%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 61.9%
61.9%
38.1%
Carlsson
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
8
(13 meetings)
5
8
Carlsson
MacKinnon
Last 10: Carlsson 5-5 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
2
Carlsson
MacKinnon
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
3
Carlsson
MacKinnon
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
3
Carlsson
MacKinnon
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
45.0% (695)
49.7% (1,038)
-4.7%
Power Play
46.4% (84)
63.7% (157)
-17.3%
Penalty Kill
32.9% (85)
34.4% (32)
-1.5%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +17.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Carlsson is 46.4% vs right-shot opponents (291).
Carlsson shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (886).
Home / Away
Carlsson
MacKinnon
Home
42.5% (435)
53.1% (618)
Away
45.5% (429)
49.1% (609)
By Period
Carlsson
MacKinnon
P1
45.3%
49.3%
P2
38.7%
53.0%
P3
48.5%
50.7%
OT
41.7%
66.7%
Final 5 min
38.4%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
32.0%▼
39.0%
44.0%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 14:58 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 10:26 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 10:20 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 07:36 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 02:42 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 03:24 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 11:23 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 06:49 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |