Scouting Report
Nazem Kadri holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Carlsson wins 42.8% vs left-shot opponents — Kadri shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 44.6% vs Kadri 46.9% (-2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kadri 57.9%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 61.4%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 53.7%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 54.5%
54.5%
45.5%
Carlsson
Kadri
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Carlsson
Kadri
Last 5: Carlsson 2-3 Kadri
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kadri
0
1
Carlsson
Kadri
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Carlsson
Kadri
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Carlsson
Kadri
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Kadri
Edge
Even Strength
45.0% (695)
46.5% (866)
-1.5%
Power Play
46.4% (84)
48.8% (86)
-2.4%
Penalty Kill
32.9% (85)
38.5% (13)
-5.6%
On penalty kill, Kadri has a +5.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kadri shoots left. Carlsson is 42.8% vs left-shot opponents (573).
Carlsson shoots left. Kadri is 43.2% vs left-shot opponents (618).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Kadri
Home
42.5% (435)
45.8% (513)
Away
45.5% (429)
47.6% (452)
By Period
Carlsson
Kadri
P1
45.3%
52.4%
P2
38.7%
48.5%
P3
48.5%
39.7%
OT
41.7%
44.4%
Final 5 min
38.4%
46.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
32.0%▼
39.0%
44.0%
Kadri
32.0%▼
35.5%
46.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2026 | 2 | 07:00 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |
| Mar 1, 2026 | 1 | 17:57 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Mar 1, 2026 | 1 | 12:09 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 1, 2026 | 1 | 02:58 | Defensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Mar 1, 2026 | 1 | 00:39 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |