Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Carlsson wins 46.4% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 44.6% vs Dowd 48.6% (-4.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 80.5%
Defensive zone
Dowd 85.7%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 50.2%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 67.7%
32.3%
67.7%
Carlsson
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Carlsson
Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Carlsson
Dowd
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Carlsson
Dowd
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
45.0% (695)
51.0% (671)
-6.0%
Power Play
46.4% (84)
0.0% (2)
+46.4%
Penalty Kill
32.9% (85)
41.5% (224)
-8.6%
On power play, Carlsson has a +46.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Carlsson is 46.4% vs right-shot opponents (291).
Carlsson shoots left. Dowd is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (571).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Dowd
Home
42.5% (435)
48.2% (471)
Away
45.5% (429)
48.8% (426)
By Period
Carlsson
Dowd
P1
45.3%
48.3%
P2
38.7%
46.8%
P3
48.5%
51.0%
OT
41.7%
30.0%
Final 5 min
38.4%
51.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
32.0%▼
39.0%
44.0%
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 5, 2026 | 3 | 12:58 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 3 | 04:29 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 5, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 1 | 16:04 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |