Scouting Report
Ryan Greene holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Greene on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Carlsson wins 41.7% vs right-shot opponents — Greene shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 41.1% vs Greene 43.7% (-2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 55.6%
Defensive zone
Greene 73.1%
Neutral zone
Greene 65.3%
Result
Ryan Greene favored at 62.2%
37.8%
62.2%
Carlsson
Greene
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Carlsson
Greene
Last 6: Carlsson 4-2 Greene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
2
0
Carlsson
Greene
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Greene
1
2
Carlsson
Greene
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carlsson
1
0
Carlsson
Greene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Greene
Edge
Even Strength
40.9% (1,878)
43.2% (530)
-2.3%
Power Play
42.9% (156)
46.8% (62)
-3.9%
Penalty Kill
34.7% (121)
40.1% (167)
-5.4%
On penalty kill, Greene has a +5.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Greene shoots right. Carlsson is 41.7% vs right-shot opponents (643).
Carlsson shoots left. Greene is 42.5% vs left-shot opponents (565).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Greene
Home
42.2% (1,051)
47.4% (382)
Away
39.2% (1,104)
38.2% (377)
By Period
Carlsson
Greene
P1
43.3%
46.1%
P2
36.2%
37.6%
P3
43.3%
45.2%
OT
40.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
39.8%
41.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
32.0%▼
39.0%
40.7%
Greene
26.0%▼
34.0%
42.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 12:06 | Defensive | Ryan Greene |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 3 | 04:10 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 2 | 14:30 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 2 | 04:17 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 1 | 07:32 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 1 | 03:39 | Defensive | Ryan Greene |