Scouting Report
Sam Reinhart holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Reinhart on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Carlsson wins 41.7% vs right-shot opponents — Reinhart shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 41.1% vs Reinhart 43.3% (-2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 57.7%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 61.2%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 60.9%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 59.1%
59.1%
40.9%
Carlsson
Reinhart
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Carlsson
Reinhart
Last 5: Carlsson 1-4 Reinhart
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Reinhart
0
3
Carlsson
Reinhart
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Carlsson
Reinhart
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Reinhart
Edge
Even Strength
40.9% (1,878)
42.5% (2,173)
-1.6%
Power Play
42.9% (156)
46.5% (525)
-3.6%
Penalty Kill
34.7% (121)
41.3% (339)
-6.6%
On penalty kill, Reinhart has a +6.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Reinhart shoots right. Carlsson is 41.7% vs right-shot opponents (643).
Carlsson shoots left. Reinhart is 41.5% vs left-shot opponents (2,283).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Reinhart
Home
42.2% (1,051)
44.9% (1,528)
Away
39.2% (1,104)
41.2% (1,509)
By Period
Carlsson
Reinhart
P1
43.3%
44.5%
P2
36.2%
40.5%
P3
43.3%
44.5%
OT
40.7%
43.5%
Final 5 min
39.8%
42.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
32.0%▼
39.0%
40.7%
Reinhart
40.0%▬
39.0%
43.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 18:52 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 3 | 16:16 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 3 | 08:50 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 3 | 06:10 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 1 | 03:13 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |