Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (44.0% vs 44.6%). Look for Thompson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Carlsson wins 46.4% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 44.6% vs Thompson 45.2% (-0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 51.7%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 52.8%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 51.5%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 52.5%
52.5%
47.5%
Carlsson
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Carlsson
Thompson
Last 5: Carlsson 1-4 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
1
0
Carlsson
Thompson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
4
Carlsson
Thompson
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
45.0% (695)
44.6% (661)
+0.4%
Power Play
46.4% (84)
48.4% (95)
-2.0%
Penalty Kill
32.9% (85)
33.3% (33)
-0.4%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Carlsson is 46.4% vs right-shot opponents (291).
Carlsson shoots left. Thompson is 41.8% vs left-shot opponents (567).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Thompson
Home
42.5% (435)
45.7% (411)
Away
45.5% (429)
43.4% (378)
By Period
Carlsson
Thompson
P1
45.3%
47.7%
P2
38.7%
45.7%
P3
48.5%
40.5%
OT
41.7%
42.9%
Final 5 min
38.4%
42.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
32.0%▼
39.0%
44.0%
Thompson
36.0%▼
40.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 07:45 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 12:28 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 09:53 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 03:43 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 00:42 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |