Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +14.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Carlsson wins 42.8% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 44.6% vs Hertl 57.5% (-14.1%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 10-3 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Carlsson 86.0%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 86.5%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 88.1%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 86.5%
86.5%
13.5%
Carlsson
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
10
(13 meetings)
3
10
Carlsson
Hertl
Last 10: Carlsson 3-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
4
Carlsson
Hertl
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
4
Carlsson
Hertl
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Carlsson
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
45.0% (695)
58.7% (858)
-13.7%
Power Play
46.4% (84)
55.8% (285)
-9.4%
Penalty Kill
32.9% (85)
62.9% (35)
-30.0%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +30.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Carlsson is 42.8% vs left-shot opponents (573).
Carlsson shoots left. Hertl is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (736).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Hertl
Home
42.5% (435)
60.1% (599)
Away
45.5% (429)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Carlsson
Hertl
P1
45.3%
52.4%
P2
38.7%
63.9%
P3
48.5%
58.5%
OT
41.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
38.4%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
32.0%▼
39.0%
44.0%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 17:32 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 08:11 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 10:42 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 02:24 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 01:33 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 17:34 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 17:10 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 14:03 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 11:24 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 09:20 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 19:09 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 10:49 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 16:18 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |