Scouting Report
Tyler Seguin holds a +9.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Seguin on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Carlsson wins 46.4% vs right-shot opponents — Seguin shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 44.6% vs Seguin 52.5% (-9.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 61.4%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 59.7%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 62.6%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 61.2%
61.2%
38.8%
Carlsson
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Carlsson
Seguin
Last 8: Carlsson 3-5 Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Seguin
1
3
Carlsson
Seguin
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Carlsson
Seguin
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
45.0% (695)
53.2% (201)
-8.2%
Power Play
46.4% (84)
60.0% (25)
-13.6%
Penalty Kill
32.9% (85)
44.4% (9)
-11.5%
On power play, Seguin has a +13.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. Carlsson is 46.4% vs right-shot opponents (291).
Carlsson shoots left. Seguin is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (187).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Seguin
Home
42.5% (435)
56.3% (126)
Away
45.5% (429)
50.5% (109)
By Period
Carlsson
Seguin
P1
45.3%
44.3%
P2
38.7%
52.1%
P3
48.5%
62.5%
OT
41.7%
80.0%
Final 5 min
38.4%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
32.0%▼
39.0%
44.0%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
53.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2025 | 3 | 17:05 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 3 | 16:39 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 2 | 19:18 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 2 | 09:26 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 1 | 13:25 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 1 | 09:42 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |