Scouting Report
Yanni Gourde holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Carlsson wins 42.8% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 44.6% vs Gourde 46.0% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 71.2%
Defensive zone
Gourde 63.4%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 50.4%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 50.4%
50.4%
49.6%
Carlsson
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Carlsson
Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
1
Carlsson
Gourde
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
45.0% (695)
47.2% (687)
-2.2%
Power Play
46.4% (84)
45.0% (20)
+1.4%
Penalty Kill
32.9% (85)
33.0% (88)
-0.1%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Carlsson is 42.8% vs left-shot opponents (573).
Carlsson shoots left. Gourde is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (522).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Gourde
Home
42.5% (435)
44.4% (356)
Away
45.5% (429)
46.5% (439)
By Period
Carlsson
Gourde
P1
45.3%
42.2%
P2
38.7%
50.0%
P3
48.5%
44.5%
OT
41.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
38.4%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
32.0%▼
39.0%
44.0%
Gourde
48.0%▲
46.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 19:11 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |