Leo Carlsson vs Zemgus Girgensons
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Zemgus Girgensons holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Girgensons on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Carlsson wins 42.8% vs left-shot opponents — Girgensons shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 44.6% vs Girgensons 46.8% (-1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 80.7%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 54.6%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 67.8%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 67.8%
67.8%
32.2%
Carlsson
Girgensons
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Carlsson
Girgensons
Last 5: Carlsson 1-4 Girgensons
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Girgensons
1
4
Carlsson
Girgensons
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Girgensons
Edge
Even Strength
45.0% (695)
45.1% (164)
-0.1%
Power Play
46.4% (84)
50.0% (2)
-3.6%
Penalty Kill
32.9% (85)
45.2% (31)
-12.3%
On penalty kill, Girgensons has a +12.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Girgensons shoots left. Carlsson is 42.8% vs left-shot opponents (573).
Carlsson shoots left. Girgensons is 45.6% vs left-shot opponents (136).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Girgensons
Home
42.5% (435)
44.6% (92)
Away
45.5% (429)
45.7% (105)
By Period
Carlsson
Girgensons
P1
45.3%
44.2%
P2
38.7%
46.0%
P3
48.5%
45.1%
Final 5 min
38.4%
38.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
32.0%▼
39.0%
44.0%
Girgensons
58.0%▲
44.5%
45.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 00:06 | Neutral | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 19:05 | Neutral | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 02:45 | Neutral | Zemgus Girgensons |