Leo Carlsson vs Zemgus Girgensons
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Zemgus Girgensons holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Girgensons on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Carlsson wins 40.3% vs left-shot opponents — Girgensons shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 41.1% vs Girgensons 45.4% (-4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 79.4%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 70.2%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 74.7%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 74.7%
74.7%
25.3%
Carlsson
Girgensons
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Carlsson
Girgensons
Last 5: Carlsson 1-4 Girgensons
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Girgensons
1
4
Carlsson
Girgensons
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Girgensons
Edge
Even Strength
40.9% (1,878)
45.5% (2,718)
-4.6%
Power Play
42.9% (156)
49.1% (175)
-6.2%
Penalty Kill
34.7% (121)
42.2% (483)
-7.5%
On penalty kill, Girgensons has a +7.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Girgensons shoots left. Carlsson is 40.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,512).
Carlsson shoots left. Girgensons is 45.8% vs left-shot opponents (2,078).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Girgensons
Home
42.2% (1,051)
45.5% (1,693)
Away
39.2% (1,104)
45.0% (1,683)
By Period
Carlsson
Girgensons
P1
43.3%
45.8%
P2
36.2%
44.1%
P3
43.3%
45.7%
OT
40.7%
52.5%
Final 5 min
39.8%
43.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
32.0%▼
39.0%
40.7%
Girgensons
58.0%▲
44.5%
45.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 00:06 | Neutral | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 19:05 | Neutral | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 02:45 | Neutral | Zemgus Girgensons |