Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (56.9% vs 57.5%). Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Draisaitl wins 53.1% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Draisaitl 56.5% vs Hertl 56.8% (-0.6%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 9-5 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Draisaitl 59.0%
Defensive zone
Hertl 66.7%
Neutral zone
Hertl 53.6%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 53.8%
46.2%
53.8%
Draisaitl
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
9
(14 meetings)
5
9
Draisaitl
Hertl
Last 10: Draisaitl 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
Draisaitl
Hertl
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
4
Draisaitl
Hertl
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Draisaitl
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Draisaitl
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
57.4% (1,010)
57.0% (718)
+0.4%
Power Play
56.2% (331)
64.9% (188)
-8.7%
Penalty Kill
54.5% (110)
44.2% (77)
+10.3%
On penalty kill, Draisaitl has a +10.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Draisaitl is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (894).
Draisaitl shoots left. Hertl is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Home / Away
Draisaitl
Hertl
Home
56.4% (734)
59.2% (463)
Away
57.5% (717)
56.0% (520)
By Period
Draisaitl
Hertl
P1
55.6%
56.3%
P2
62.1%
55.4%
P3
52.4%
60.5%
OT
61.5%
50.0%
Final 5 min
55.6%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Draisaitl
64.0%▲
54.0%
56.9%
Hertl
58.0%▬
58.5%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2024 | 3 | 05:46 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 10, 2024 | 1 | 16:13 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 28, 2023 | 2 | 01:02 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Dec 28, 2023 | 1 | 13:22 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Dec 28, 2023 | 1 | 01:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 3 | 19:04 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 3 | 18:44 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 3 | 14:27 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 3 | 10:47 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 3 | 08:53 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 3 | 08:34 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 2 | 02:43 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 1 | 14:01 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |