Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +7.0% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Cooley wins 44.5% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cooley 45.1% vs MacKinnon 51.0% (-7.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cooley 53.9%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 50.3%
Neutral zone
Cooley 53.8%
Result
Logan Cooley favored at 52.1%
52.1%
47.9%
Cooley
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Cooley
MacKinnon
Last 7: Cooley 3-4 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Cooley
MacKinnon
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
3
Cooley
MacKinnon
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cooley
2
0
Cooley
MacKinnon
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cooley
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
43.5% (421)
49.7% (1,038)
-6.2%
Power Play
46.3% (82)
63.7% (157)
-17.4%
Penalty Kill
57.1% (7)
34.4% (32)
+22.7%
On penalty kill, Cooley has a +22.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Cooley is 44.5% vs right-shot opponents (191).
Cooley shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (886).
Home / Away
Cooley
MacKinnon
Home
45.0% (240)
53.1% (618)
Away
43.3% (270)
49.1% (609)
By Period
Cooley
MacKinnon
P1
44.1%
49.3%
P2
48.8%
53.0%
P3
37.7%
50.7%
Final 5 min
45.9%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cooley
42.0%▼
49.5%
44.1%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 04:54 | Offensive | Logan Cooley |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Logan Cooley |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 1 | 03:46 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Logan Cooley |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 16:01 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 10:40 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 06:57 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |