Scouting Report
Nicolas Roy holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Roy on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Reichel wins 39.4% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Reichel 42.1% vs Roy 47.9% (-7.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Reichel 55.4%
Defensive zone
Reichel 53.3%
Neutral zone
Reichel 57.3%
Result
Lukas Reichel favored at 54.8%
54.8%
45.2%
Reichel
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Reichel
Roy
Last 7: Reichel 3-4 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Roy
1
2
Reichel
Roy
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Reichel
2
1
Reichel
Roy
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
0
1
Reichel
Roy
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Reichel
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
39.1% (327)
48.6% (679)
-9.5%
Power Play
50.0% (28)
48.0% (50)
+2.0%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
34.7% (49)
-34.7%
On penalty kill, Roy has a +34.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Reichel is 39.4% vs right-shot opponents (127).
Reichel shoots left. Roy is 45.1% vs left-shot opponents (592).
Home / Away
Reichel
Roy
Home
43.7% (206)
49.3% (345)
Away
34.7% (150)
46.4% (433)
By Period
Reichel
Roy
P1
35.5%
47.6%
P2
39.5%
47.1%
P3
46.5%
47.9%
Final 5 min
35.6%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Reichel
42.0%▲
40.0%
39.9%
Roy
54.0%▲
52.0%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2025 | 3 | 02:06 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 28, 2025 | 2 | 14:45 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 28, 2025 | 2 | 02:49 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 28, 2025 | 1 | 07:45 | Defensive | Lukas Reichel |
| Mar 28, 2025 | 1 | 04:56 | Offensive | Lukas Reichel |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 05:06 | Defensive | Lukas Reichel |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 05:02 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |