Scouting Report
Jack McBain holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for McBain on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). McBain wins 53.5% vs left-shot opponents — Celebrini shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 50.9% vs Celebrini 48.4% (+2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McBain 54.0%
Defensive zone
McBain 74.9%
Neutral zone
McBain 65.6%
Result
Jack McBain favored at 58.6%
58.6%
41.4%
McBain
Celebrini
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
McBain
Celebrini
Last 7: McBain 6-1 Celebrini
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McBain
5
0
McBain
Celebrini
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McBain
1
0
McBain
Celebrini
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Celebrini
0
1
McBain
Celebrini
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
Celebrini
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (569)
47.5% (979)
+5.0%
Power Play
42.1% (19)
53.6% (110)
-11.5%
Penalty Kill
36.2% (47)
56.0% (25)
-19.8%
On penalty kill, Celebrini has a +19.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Celebrini shoots left. McBain is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (374).
McBain shoots left. Celebrini is 48.7% vs left-shot opponents (770).
Home / Away
McBain
Celebrini
Home
52.4% (309)
47.8% (523)
Away
49.7% (326)
48.7% (591)
By Period
McBain
Celebrini
P1
54.0%
47.4%
P2
52.7%
46.6%
P3
46.5%
50.8%
OT
50.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
54.8%
45.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.0%
Celebrini
38.0%▼
42.0%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1, 2025 | 2 | 03:39 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 2 | 03:35 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 1 | 18:39 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 2 | 10:12 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 2 | 06:00 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 2 | 05:51 | Neutral | Macklin Celebrini |
| Oct 17, 2025 | 3 | 03:58 | Offensive | Jack McBain |