Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +7.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Evans wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Celebrini shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.0% vs Celebrini 48.4% (+7.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Evans 57.9%
Defensive zone
Evans 97.1%
Neutral zone
Evans 84.2%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 85.7%
85.7%
14.3%
Evans
Celebrini
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
1
(8 meetings)
7
1
Evans
Celebrini
Last 8: Evans 7-1 Celebrini
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Celebrini
0
1
Evans
Celebrini
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
3
0
Evans
Celebrini
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
4
0
Evans
Celebrini
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Celebrini
Edge
Even Strength
55.6% (522)
47.5% (979)
+8.1%
Power Play
72.7% (11)
53.6% (110)
+19.1%
Penalty Kill
55.2% (210)
56.0% (25)
-0.8%
On power play, Evans has a +19.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Celebrini shoots left. Evans is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (559).
Evans shoots right. Celebrini is 47.4% vs right-shot opponents (344).
Home / Away
Evans
Celebrini
Home
54.7% (402)
47.8% (523)
Away
56.9% (341)
48.7% (591)
By Period
Evans
Celebrini
P1
57.9%
47.4%
P2
55.2%
46.6%
P3
53.6%
50.8%
OT
66.7%
57.1%
Final 5 min
54.5%
45.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
50.0%▼
57.0%
55.7%
Celebrini
38.0%▼
42.0%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 15:22 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 08:27 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 03:20 | Offensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 10:56 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 05:02 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 02:43 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 12:33 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 09:27 | Defensive | Jake Evans |