Macklin Celebrini vs Mitch Marner

2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report

Macklin Celebrini holds a +8.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Celebrini on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).

Prediction Breakdown
Model XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian) Celebrini 48.7% vs Marner 42.5% (+8.4%)
H2H factor Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone Celebrini 77.7%
Defensive zone Celebrini 73.3%
Neutral zone Celebrini 77.8%
Result Macklin Celebrini favored at 76.3%
76.3%
23.7%
Celebrini Marner
Head-to-Head Record
6 - 3 (9 meetings)
6
3
Celebrini Marner
Last 9: Celebrini 6-3 Marner

Zone Breakdown

Offensive Zone
Edge: Celebrini
1
0
Celebrini Marner
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Marner
1
2
Celebrini Marner
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Celebrini
4
1
Celebrini Marner
5 total

Situation Matchup

Situation
Celebrini
Marner
Edge
Even Strength
47.8% (993)
40.8% (316)
+7.0%
Power Play
54.1% (111)
40.0% (5)
+14.1%
Penalty Kill
56.0% (25)
25.0% (12)
+31.0%
On penalty kill, Celebrini has a +31.0% edge.

Handedness & Splits

Handedness
Marner shoots right. Celebrini is 48.0% vs right-shot opponents (354).
Celebrini shoots left. Marner is 39.7% vs left-shot opponents (247).
Home / Away
Celebrini
Marner
Home
48.5% (538)
36.0% (186)
Away
48.7% (591)
45.6% (147)
By Period
Celebrini
Marner
P1
48.1%
40.7%
P2
46.8%
41.0%
P3
51.0%
38.6%
Final 5 min
46.1%
41.8%

Recent Form

Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Celebrini
48.0%
44.5%
48.6%
Marner
40.0%
41.5%
40.2%

Recent Faceoffs

Date Period Time Zone Winner
Jan 11, 2026 3 18:04 Offensive Macklin Celebrini
Jan 11, 2026 3 08:55 Defensive Macklin Celebrini
Jan 11, 2026 2 12:25 Neutral Macklin Celebrini
Jan 11, 2026 1 11:41 Defensive Mitch Marner
Dec 23, 2025 3 00:15 Neutral Mitch Marner
Dec 23, 2025 3 00:00 Neutral Macklin Celebrini
Dec 23, 2025 2 00:00 Neutral Macklin Celebrini
Dec 23, 2025 1 14:57 Neutral Macklin Celebrini
Oct 9, 2025 2 02:13 Defensive Mitch Marner