Macklin Celebrini vs Mitch Marner
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Macklin Celebrini holds a +8.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Celebrini on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Celebrini 48.7% vs Marner 42.5% (+8.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Celebrini 77.7%
Defensive zone
Celebrini 73.3%
Neutral zone
Celebrini 77.8%
Result
Macklin Celebrini favored at 76.3%
76.3%
23.7%
Celebrini
Marner
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Celebrini
Marner
Last 9: Celebrini 6-3 Marner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Celebrini
1
0
Celebrini
Marner
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Marner
1
2
Celebrini
Marner
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Celebrini
4
1
Celebrini
Marner
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Celebrini
Marner
Edge
Even Strength
47.8% (993)
40.8% (316)
+7.0%
Power Play
54.1% (111)
40.0% (5)
+14.1%
Penalty Kill
56.0% (25)
25.0% (12)
+31.0%
On penalty kill, Celebrini has a +31.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Marner shoots right. Celebrini is 48.0% vs right-shot opponents (354).
Celebrini shoots left. Marner is 39.7% vs left-shot opponents (247).
Home / Away
Celebrini
Marner
Home
48.5% (538)
36.0% (186)
Away
48.7% (591)
45.6% (147)
By Period
Celebrini
Marner
P1
48.1%
40.7%
P2
46.8%
41.0%
P3
51.0%
38.6%
Final 5 min
46.1%
41.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Celebrini
48.0%▲
44.5%
48.6%
Marner
40.0%▼
41.5%
40.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2026 | 3 | 18:04 | Offensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 3 | 08:55 | Defensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 2 | 12:25 | Neutral | Macklin Celebrini |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 1 | 11:41 | Defensive | Mitch Marner |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 00:15 | Neutral | Mitch Marner |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Macklin Celebrini |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Macklin Celebrini |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 14:57 | Neutral | Macklin Celebrini |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 02:13 | Defensive | Mitch Marner |