Scouting Report
Sam Steel holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Celebrini 48.7% vs Steel 50.6% (-2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Celebrini 57.6%
Defensive zone
Steel 61.8%
Neutral zone
Steel 53.3%
Result
Sam Steel favored at 59.0%
41.0%
59.0%
Celebrini
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Celebrini
Steel
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Celebrini
Steel
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Celebrini
1
0
Celebrini
Steel
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Celebrini
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
47.8% (993)
52.5% (200)
-4.7%
Power Play
54.1% (111)
71.4% (7)
-17.3%
Penalty Kill
56.0% (25)
40.0% (45)
+16.0%
On power play, Steel has a +17.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. Celebrini is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (775).
Celebrini shoots left. Steel is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (148).
Home / Away
Celebrini
Steel
Home
48.5% (538)
49.5% (109)
Away
48.7% (591)
51.7% (143)
By Period
Celebrini
Steel
P1
48.1%
49.5%
P2
46.8%
47.5%
P3
51.0%
56.6%
OT
57.1%
40.0%
Final 5 min
46.1%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Celebrini
48.0%▲
44.5%
48.6%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 16:24 | Defensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 19:01 | Neutral | Macklin Celebrini |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 1 | 04:46 | Defensive | Sam Steel |