Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +8.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Kasper wins 45.1% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kasper 50.0% vs Hertl 57.4% (-8.1%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 10-0 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Kasper 74.1%
Defensive zone
Kasper 91.7%
Neutral zone
Kasper 80.7%
Result
Marco Kasper favored at 82.1%
82.1%
17.9%
Kasper
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
10
(10 meetings)
0
10
Kasper
Hertl
Last 10: Kasper 0-10 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
3
Kasper
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
3
Kasper
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
4
Kasper
Hertl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kasper
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.4% (366)
58.5% (845)
-7.1%
Power Play
33.3% (9)
56.2% (281)
-22.9%
Penalty Kill
31.6% (19)
62.9% (35)
-31.3%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +31.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Kasper is 45.1% vs left-shot opponents (264).
Kasper shoots left. Hertl is 56.9% vs left-shot opponents (719).
Home / Away
Kasper
Hertl
Home
51.5% (194)
60.0% (582)
Away
48.5% (200)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Kasper
Hertl
P1
54.1%
52.1%
P2
52.1%
63.6%
P3
43.4%
58.8%
OT
100.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
42.5%
58.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kasper
52.0%▬
52.0%
50.0%
Hertl
64.0%▲
60.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2026 | 1 | 05:18 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 4, 2026 | 1 | 01:50 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 12:07 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 11:49 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 17:57 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 00:59 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 00:46 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 1 | 19:31 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 1 | 03:29 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 1 | 00:23 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |