Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (89% H2H, 9 meetings). Kasper wins 42.9% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kasper 46.9% vs Hertl 54.3% (-7.7%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 21-4 in 25 meetings
Offensive zone
Kasper 95.5%
Defensive zone
Kasper 88.3%
Neutral zone
Kasper 90.0%
Result
Marco Kasper favored at 91.6%
91.6%
8.4%
Kasper
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
21
(25 meetings)
4
21
Kasper
Hertl
Last 10: Kasper 0-10 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
8
Kasper
Hertl
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
6
Kasper
Hertl
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
3
7
Kasper
Hertl
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kasper
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
47.2% (960)
53.9% (8,303)
-6.7%
Power Play
46.9% (32)
59.2% (1,995)
-12.3%
Penalty Kill
30.6% (36)
46.3% (806)
-15.7%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +15.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Kasper is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (683).
Kasper shoots left. Hertl is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (6,962).
Home / Away
Kasper
Hertl
Home
49.4% (474)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
44.2% (554)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Kasper
Hertl
P1
48.0%
53.6%
P2
51.0%
54.2%
P3
40.2%
55.3%
OT
66.7%
46.9%
Final 5 min
40.7%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kasper
52.0%▬
52.0%
46.6%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2026 | 1 | 05:18 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 4, 2026 | 1 | 01:50 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 12:07 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 11:49 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 17:57 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 00:59 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 00:46 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 1 | 19:31 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 1 | 03:29 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 1 | 00:23 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 09:36 | Neutral | Marco Kasper |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 15:16 | Offensive | Marco Kasper |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 11:26 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 1 | 18:10 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 1 | 18:02 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 1 | 11:13 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 3 | 16:46 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 2 | 14:12 | Neutral | Marco Kasper |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 2 | 10:53 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 2 | 03:33 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |