Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rossi 46.8% vs Duchene 54.1% (-7.6%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 14-4 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Rossi 88.0%
Defensive zone
Rossi 86.5%
Neutral zone
Rossi 83.6%
Result
Marco Rossi favored at 86.8%
86.8%
13.2%
Rossi
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
14
(18 meetings)
4
14
Rossi
Duchene
Last 10: Rossi 2-8 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
7
Rossi
Duchene
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
6
Rossi
Duchene
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Rossi
2
1
Rossi
Duchene
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rossi
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
46.8% (2,180)
53.9% (10,438)
-7.1%
Power Play
47.1% (189)
57.0% (1,677)
-9.9%
Penalty Kill
34.1% (44)
49.1% (468)
-15.0%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +15.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Rossi is 48.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,558).
Rossi shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,089).
Home / Away
Rossi
Duchene
Home
47.8% (1,225)
55.6% (6,430)
Away
45.4% (1,188)
52.7% (6,177)
By Period
Rossi
Duchene
P1
47.1%
54.4%
P2
44.7%
54.5%
P3
48.2%
53.4%
OT
45.8%
56.3%
Final 5 min
44.1%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rossi
46.0%▼
51.0%
46.6%
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2025 | 3 | 05:13 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 1 | 05:51 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 24, 2025 | 2 | 12:28 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 24, 2025 | 2 | 08:54 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 24, 2025 | 2 | 05:12 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 24, 2025 | 1 | 08:27 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 27, 2024 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Marco Rossi |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 2 | 18:58 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 3 | 17:13 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 3 | 14:06 | Offensive | Marco Rossi |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 2 | 18:30 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 2 | 10:17 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 1 | 11:56 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 1 | 09:03 | Offensive | Marco Rossi |
| Jan 10, 2024 | 3 | 12:57 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 10, 2024 | 2 | 13:33 | Neutral | Marco Rossi |
| Jan 10, 2024 | 2 | 06:55 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 8, 2024 | 3 | 13:11 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |