Scouting Report
Marco Rossi holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rossi 49.5% vs Cates 45.2% (+4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Rossi 50.4%
Defensive zone
Cates 53.7%
Neutral zone
Cates 52.9%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 52.7%
47.3%
52.7%
Rossi
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Rossi
Cates
Last 5: Rossi 2-3 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Rossi
1
0
Rossi
Cates
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
3
Rossi
Cates
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Rossi
1
0
Rossi
Cates
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rossi
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (283)
44.2% (566)
+8.1%
Power Play
36.4% (33)
44.0% (84)
-7.6%
Penalty Kill
34.6% (26)
50.0% (38)
-15.4%
On penalty kill, Cates has a +15.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Rossi is 48.6% vs left-shot opponents (243).
Rossi shoots left. Cates is 43.5% vs left-shot opponents (437).
Home / Away
Rossi
Cates
Home
46.5% (157)
45.1% (350)
Away
51.9% (185)
43.8% (338)
By Period
Rossi
Cates
P1
56.0%
46.8%
P2
48.2%
46.5%
P3
43.6%
40.8%
OT
50.0%
20.0%
Final 5 min
41.9%
41.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rossi
52.0%▲
49.5%
49.4%
Cates
56.0%▲
46.5%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 30, 2025 | 3 | 11:16 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 30, 2025 | 3 | 01:08 | Neutral | Marco Rossi |
| Dec 22, 2025 | 2 | 15:50 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 22, 2025 | 2 | 03:06 | Offensive | Marco Rossi |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 16:01 | Defensive | Noah Cates |